Numerical Methods for Pricing Swing Options in the Electricity Market
Master's Thesis in Financial Mathematics, Halmstad University, Sweden
Betreuer
Description
Since the liberalisation of the energy market in Europe in the early 1990s,
much opportunity to trade electricity as a commodity has arose. One significant consequence of this movement is that market prices have become more volatile instead of its tradition constant rate of supply. Spot price markets have also been introduced, affecting demand of electricity as companies now have the option to not only produce their own supply but also purchase this commodity from the market.
Following the liberalisation of the energy market, hence creating a greater demand for trading of electricity and other types of energy, various types of options related to the sales, storage and transmission of electricity have consequently been introduced.
Particularly, swing options are popular in the electricity market.
As we know, swing type of derivatives are given in various forms and are mainly traded as overthecounter contracts at energy exchange.
These options offer flexibility with respect to timing and quantity.
Tradtionally, the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model is a
very popular and standard approach for modelling the risk neutral price dynamics of underlyings.
However, a limitation of this model is that it has very few degrees of freedom, which dos not capture the complex behaviour of electricity prices.
In short the GBM model is inefficient in the pricing of options involving electricity.
Other models have subsequently been used to bridge this inadequecy,
e.g. the spot price models, futures price models, etc.
To model riskneutral commodity prices, there are basically two different methodologies,
namely spot and futures or socalled term structure models.
As swing options are usually written on spot prices, it is important for us to examine these models
in order to more accurately inculcate their effect on the pricing of swing options.
In this thesis, we aim to examine the pricing of swing options in the electricity market.
We will consider some existing price models and to calibrate the prices of swing options in comparison.
Keywords
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